There are no shortages of predictions of “doomsday”, however they all end up wrong (or haven’t happened yet). I’ve been reading a book that was written eight years ago. It warns us of the impending collapse, specifically the collapse of the USA and the collapse of the financial system.
The (very easy to predict) surge of inflation that started in 2021 renewed talk and fear of a collapse. We see gold reaching new record high prices and that’s yet another sign of concern for collapse.
How long can the Ponzi scheme of fiat money continue?
The answer really is “cycles”.
Yes, history demonstrates that all empires eventually collapse. But it’s key to notice the difference between “collapse” and “disappear”. The British Empire collapsed, but England is still around and they still even have essentially the same government structure. Other collapses have led to revolutions. That can get ugly and generally leads to a different form of government but the people are still there and often the nation more or less remains intact (think of the French Revolution).
It seems inherently obvious that a fiat money system (with irresponsible leaders) must collapse at some point. But will it? Must it?
Perhaps the question we should be asking is when will the revival be?
The USA, by my thinking, has been in decline (collapse) since roughly 1970. This occurred when Nixon killed off the gold standard and switched the US Dollar to being completely a fiat money system. This defaulted on the USA’s obligations (debts) to other countries around the world. No other nation was in a position to step up and replace the USA’s dominant financial position so other nations took their lumps, accepted their losses and the US Dollar remained the (primary) reserve currency of the world.
“But John, the national debt has grown too big, eventually we must default on it.” No, not necessarily. As long as everyone continues to play along with the game the government can continue to borrow money, the Central Banks continue to print money and inflation rages on. Result: the rich get richer and the rest of us watch our standard of living decline.
This seems like it can’t go on forever, but we often don’t even notice it because through our careers our income rises as we gain experience and take better paying positions while the world continues to make advances that give us a nicer standard of living.
Well, that is until we run out of energy and thus lack the productive capability to continue to improve. The world has been hitting something of an energy crisis, off and on for the past fifty years.
My point is that we aren’t going to suddenly wake up tomorrow to the “collapse”. Some people advocate homesteading, that’s great for them if they enjoy that style of life. For others, finding land to homestead is difficult or financially out of reach. For many, that style of life is undesirable. Some of us would like a “happy medium”.
Bringing this back to practicality, assuming we can’t change our location and style of life, what can we do to improve our own personal future?
Investments – if you can’t beat them, join them! Invest in something that pays a return greater than inflation, be patient, watch your wealth grow.
Gold – the price of gold varies, but it’s value has never gone away. It may not make you wealthy, but holding a good gold reserve is an excellent way to preserve your wealth (the worse the future is the more valuable gold tends to be).
Health – Maintaining your health is always your best investment. Well, unless you sink a lot of money into “snake oil” that doesn’t actually improve your health.
Education – Being well educated preserves your own value (to others and to yourself).
Employment – unless you are in a position to retire (or already retired), pursuing a strategic career of a job that has a good future will serve you well (best can be as an entrepreneur with your own business). An example of a job that has a poor future: help desk work (this is quickly being replaced by “AI”)
Prep – the better supplied you are, the less impact supply chain disruptions are. There should never be a toilet paper shortage, it’s about the easiest thing in the world to buy some extra and store it in the back of a closet. A source of water is perhaps your most critical prep.